The Oxford University Press, the publisher of the Oxford
dictionaries, has announced that “selfie” has been declared word of the
year for 2013. The word, “smartphone” self-portrait posted online” saw a
huge jump in usage in the past year to describe inordinate if not
obsessive attention to oneself and his advocacies. Selfie could well
apply to actions and statements of claimants to the land and sea area at
the South China Sea.
For months, China has been engaged in selfies in the SCS, the most
recent examples being the “Air Defense Identification Zone” in the East
Sea and the “training mission” of their aircraft carrier Liaoning in the
SCS, The twin moves follow previous Chinese “effectiveness” in the area
such as the virtual occupation of Panatag Shoal, dispatch of Chinese
fishing fleets accompanied by naval units, and creation of Chinese
administrative units to “supervise” their territories. The biggest
selfie is their nine-dash line. All these selfies do not build trust,
escalate tensions, and curtail preventive diplomacy.
The Philippines has its own selfies. It hauled China to the Unclos
Arbitral Tribunal. It has welcomed “increase national presence” of US
troops to the Philippines and agreed to grant access to Philippine
bases.
In doing its selfies on the WPS, the Philippines should engage in
some sort of stock taking on recent developments—what we did which we
should not have done and what we did not do and should have done. The
Philippines in the Arbitral Panel is a positive step for the country.
Our immediate concern in the Panel would be, (a) to convince the Panel
that our submission is sufficient for them to assume jurisdiction.
(b) That our case does not fall within the reservations made by China
to the disputes settlement mechanism and (c) that our memorials to be
submitted by March next year should contain hard, specific data well
grounded in fact and in law which will convince the Panel to award what
we are praying for. Our memorials should contain a prayer for the Panel
to grant the Philippines, “Provisional measures” or “preventive
remedies” against on going tactics of China in the West Philippine Sea.
The process in Panel will be protracted and China is likely to continue
with their activities in the area.
Our petition should include measures against Chinese tactics of
cabbage (surrounding a contested area step by step with naval presence
and thus wrapped it like a cabbage).
A General of the People Liberation Army, which calls the shots in the
SCS openly advocates this strategy. Another tactics called “Salami
slicing” should also be prevented. This strategy involves a series of
unfriendly acts, which can result in strategic change short of so called
“small wars”. We should develop a framework strategy in case (a) we win
in the Panel “how do we harness this victory to protect and promote our
national interest” (b) in case we lose, what other options do we have.
Serendipity is not a policy option.
The Philippines together with Asean and other countries put great
importance on a code of conduct in the South China Sea. China’s
agreement to hold consultations on the subject is again a positive step.
However, China’s position remains that any code could come only when
the time is ripe. They still abhor the idea of “code.”
There are lessons to be learned from the first attempt to develop a code of conduct.
First, the Philippines should lead and avoid being only a fellow
traveler in the negotiations. Second, the Philippines must have a draft,
just like we had in 2002. The Philippines draft became an Asean draft,
which we presented in a China-Asean meeting; China rejected the Draft
but it opened the door for China to present their own views and engaged
us in discussions. Third trust and confidence must accompany talks,
which talks should go beyond regular Asean-China meetings. The
SOM-senior officials- must develop a process of consultations to go
forward.
US pivot to Asia
The Philippines considers and welcomes the US “pivot” to Asia as an aid
of its position on the West Philippine Sea. The volume and tone of the
debate on the issue should be lowered and efforts should the directed to
how best to maximize the rotational presence and access to Philippine
bases which we are about to grant. Despite protestations to the
contrary, China perceives the pivot as directed against them.
The outcome in the Panel, in the talks on the code of conduct and the
negotiations in the pivot are defining moments for Philippine foreign
and diplomacy in the South China Sea.
There are several realities, which must be taken in to account as we
negotiate these issues. First the security architecture of Asia will be
determined to a significant extent by the strategic relations between
the US and China. Second, territorial and maritime jurisdictions are
generational issues, which will take time to resolve if ever at all.
Trust must accompany relations between states and positions. Let us also
keep in mind that China and the United States of yesterday are not the
China and US of today.
We should take care that we do not raise unrealistic expectations of
general support for principles of general international law, which are
already enshrined in international instruments. They make us feel good
but are not yet accomplishments of our objectives. Peaceful settlement
of disputes, freedom of navigation etc. have been open quoted by both
angels and demons alike.
The Philippine selfie in the SCS/WPS must be clear, creative, alert, agile.
source: Manila Times Column of Amb. Lauro L. Baja
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