U.S. has few reasons to fan drone spat

For all the outrage after China seized a US naval drone last week, it’s far from clear whether it will herald a new era of confrontation on the high seas between the world’s biggest economies.

China’s unprecedented move last week drew condemnations from the Pentagon, the Philippines and President-elect Donald J. Trump, who accused the nation of stealing the drone. China rejected that characterization on Monday, saying it made the seizure to protect shipping in the area, while agreeing to return the unmanned vehicle.

Either way, further escalation is unlikely for a few reasons: China’s response has been muted, the drones are relatively common and unsophisticated and the US has little reason to send warships on what it considers peaceful operations. Moreover, the incident fell into what strategists call a gray zone, too mild to provoke a military response that risks destabilizing the region.

“Allies in the region do want to see a steadfast American presence and maintenance of the rules-based order, but they don’t want to see overly assertive or prematurely assertive American behavior that might be making things worse,” said Ashley Townshend, research fellow at the US studies center at the University of Sydney.

China sought to downplay the episode on Monday, with Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hua
Chunying likening the drone to an object found on the street.

Drone intelligence

“You have to take a look and investigate it to see if the thing belongs to one who wants it back,” Hua said.

Fox News and other media outlets reported the glider may be returned as early as Tuesday at an agreed location in the South China Sea, citing unidentified US officials. “We’re working out the logistical details,” Defense Department Spokesman Peter Cook said.

Whether China found anything interesting remains to be seen. Underwater gliders like the one seized are used to collect environmental readings, such as water temperature, salinity and information on currents for use by the military as navigation aids for ships and submarines, according to Sam Bateman, a research fellow at the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security in Wollongong.

“It was surprising the Chinese bothered to recover it,” he said. “They probably wouldn’t be able to read the data on it, and they might not get a great deal of intelligence out of it.”

Bateman, who is a former Royal Australian Navy commodore, said the incident is unlikely to prompt the US to start using warships for what it considers peaceful operations.

‘Bit naughty’

“The Chinese were probably a wee bit naughty taking this thing,” he said. “Some are making the argument that this is China demonstrating that they can do as they like in the South China Sea. That’s a stretch.” China has long opposed American patrols and surveillance within its exclusive economic zone, while the US views anything beyond 12 nautical miles as international waters in which military activities can take place.

“The issue for the United States is less about a strong response to a specific incident and more about a broader and resolute US response to what is seen as a pattern of sustained Chinese assertiveness in the region,” said Andrew Scobell, a senior political scientist at RAND Corporation. Any US response to future moves “would be measured and appropriate to the scope and scale of any Chinese action.”

No strategy

The location of this incident, about 50 nautical miles northwest Subic Bay, raised eyebrows. Defense Secretary Delfin N. Lorenzana said on Monday that, while the matter should be resolved between China and the US, it was “very troubling” because it occurred within the country’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive
economic zone.

The last major incident between the US and China in the South China Sea occurred in 2013 when the USS Cowpens and a Chinese military vessel had a confrontation in the South China Sea that required maneuvering to avoid a collision. In August 2014 a Chinese fighter buzzed within 20 feet of a US surveillance plane in international waters near Hainan island.

The US must develop a strategy for responding to incidents involving underwater unmanned vehicles because they are likely to become more common, said Collin Koh Swee Lean, an associate research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. Even so, he said, the devices aren’t worth going to war over.

“The good thing about the device is that it was unmanned,” Koh said. “The US understands they are meant to be lost.”

source:  Business Mirror

DESPITE RHETORIC: Duterte gives nod to PHL-US Balikatan war games, EDCA — Lorenzana

President Rodrigo Duterte has given his nod to the continuation of the Balikatan joint military exercises between Philippine and US forces, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana told reporters on Monday.

Lorenzana said the continued conduct of Balikatan in the country was one of the DND's recommendations that Duterte approved.

The secretary said the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the two countries would also continue.

Lorenzana's remarks came weeks after Duterte declared in Beijing that he was separating the Philippines from the US, in terms of the military and the economy.

He said he was pursuing a foreign policy in which the Philippines would no longer follow the dictates of its treaty ally.

Duterte previously announced to end military exercises with the United States.

He also hinted revise or abrogate executive agreements just to see foreign troops out of the country.

"Nag-present kami. Practically in-approve niya lahat ng recommendation," Lorenzana told reporters on Monday.

"Iyong recommendation namin is the exercises will go on except na bawasan ang major exercises na involving landing exercise," he added.

This means that the Balikatan military exercises would still push through every year with the same number of participating Americans troops of 1,000.

"'Yung mga Balikatan na lang [ang natira]. So yearly, continue nalang siya. Ang matitira is counterterrorism, tsaka 'yung humanitarian response, 'yung mga special operations na mga counterterrorism, mga engineering projects, civic action. 'Yun na lang muna," he added.

This means that the Philippines will no longer engage in the Philippines Amphibious Landing Exercise (Phiblex) and the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) with US forces.

Lorenzana said the EDCA would remain.

"It will remain. Hindi naman [i-abrogate]," Lorenzana said.

source:  GMA News Online

Incoherent

SKETCHES By Ana Marie Pamintuan (The Philippine Star)

The day after President Duterte announced his “separation” militarily and economically from Uncle Sam, all his officials were running around like headless chickens, trying to explain the unexplainable to a flabbergasted world.

After returning to the country Friday night via Davao, Duterte added to the confusion by clarifying that he did not intend to cut ties with Washington because, he said, “the Filipinos in the United States will kill me.” I’m sure neither the Americans nor the Chinese are amused.

Du30, who promised to undergo a “metamorphosis” – only to say later that he saw no need to change his ways and we have to take him as he is – will find it useful to adopt two minor changes in his work ethic.

One is to read prepared speeches. If he can’t help it, he may confine his extemporaneous remarks,  profanities and ejaculations of political incorrectness and uninformed commentary to small or localized gatherings where he knows the audience shares his sense of humor and is charmed by a cussing president. But even in such gatherings, and even outside the coverage of mainstream media, he must remember that smartphones and social media can still spread his remarks around the planet in real time.

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Another useful change is to start consulting his Cabinet on matters of grave national importance. Obviously this is not happening. In the past days I’ve heard people who personally know some of his Cabinet members wonder how long the secretaries will last with a boss who takes them for granted, shoots his mouth off and then leaves them to clean up the mess.

Du30 should also consider the latent condescension in one of his favorite stories to regale an adoring Pinoy audience. He did it again in Beijing. Look at my Cabinet members, several of them childhood friends, he told the gathering of Filipino expats. The Cabinet men were valedictorians, overachievers, the best and brightest in their youth. And now here they are, he said, the “trabajante” of the underachiever who barely passed.

He tells the story to illustrate his belief in destiny, and to stress that God put him where he is now. So many atrocities have been committed in the name of God, and it’s always dangerous when someone starts believing that he has the mandate of Heaven. The last president to invoke God’s mandate was Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Destiny surely must have been at work in their lives, and there are Pinoys these days who are saying that God must hate the Philippines so much. The government seems to be lurching needlessly from one self-made crisis to another.

This is kamikaze governance. Left unchecked, it could bring down if not the nation, then Du30’s government.

* * *

Already, Du30’s motor mouth is costing him his credibility before the international community. And he should stop saying he’s not the president of the world, but only of the Philippines. Such myopia is dangerous for a country that is progressively slipping in international competitiveness. He should be encouraging Filipinos to become global citizens, to compete with the best in the world.

Being a lawyer, Duterte has to understand the importance of words, nuance and context. He claims weak proficiency in English and Filipino ­– something that is hard to believe for someone who has served as a public prosecutor and has three children by an American. But if the claim is true, this makes it all the more important for him to read prepared speeches.

Flip-flopping is never good for a world leader. At this point Du30 is still considered a world leader, but if he keeps up with his juvenile behavior, hyperboles, crude language, flip-flopping and clarifications of public statements, he might find himself regarded as an international buffoon.

If his incoherent foreign policy continues, we will soon become the laughingstock of the world.

* * *

Du30 should consider that he might be putting even his preferred allies on the spot with his intemperate remarks.

After openly raising expectations of asserting Philippine fishing rights over Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, for example, there was deafening silence from Beijing, and Du30 came home empty-handed. There was no mention of the continuing Chinese occupation of Panganiban or Mischief Reef, over which the Permanent Arbitration Court has given the Philippines sovereign rights.

And while Beijing surely appreciates his “pivot” away from the US and into the arms of China, there must be enormous befuddlement – perhaps even snickering – in Beijing and Moscow over his announcement of forming a “triumvirate… against the world” with nuclear club members China and Russia.

For a president who keeps promising that his government will be clean, Du30’s choice of allies is baffling. Beijing is battling corruption at all levels. Apart from national corruption scandals, the venality in the Chinese bureaucracy has given the world melamine in milk and candy, lead in toys, killer toxins in pet food and cardboard in siopao filling. Beijing’s crackdown on corruption has been bad news for Philippine casinos; the expected influx of high rollers from the Chinese mainland has not materialized.

Russia, meanwhile, has been plagued by cronyism, inefficient state capitalism and gangster activities. The economy has faltered because of weak oil prices and massive defense spending for Vladimir Putin’s wars overseas.

Putin, whom Du30 has said he likes, has enough problems, both domestically and internationally. The Russian president must be dumbfounded to learn that his country is being made part of a “triumvirate… against the world.”

* * *

Definitely the Americans have gotten the message that this Philippine President is no fan of Uncle Sam. But a recalibration of foreign policy can be done without pugnacity and with so much more finesse, so that the Philippines gains more friends instead of losing allies.

If Duterte is crafting an “independent” foreign policy, he should just do it, quit yapping about it, and show the world what he means exactly.

In refusing to be an American “puppet” – as he likes to describe the ties with the Philippines’ treaty ally – Du30 should avoid turning into a Chinese puppet.

It’s early days yet and the nation that sent Duterte to power by a landslide is still fervently wishing that he does well. The success of a president generally spells success for the nation. But cheering him on is getting harder with each passing day.

The President must not make it hard for a still optimistic nation to support him.

Duterte wrong on China non-invasion – Carpio

GOTCHA By Jarius Bondoc (The Philippine Star) 

President Rodrigo Duterte misstated in Beijing that China never has invaded any part of Philippine territory. This was pointed out last week by Supreme Court Senior Justice Antonio Carpio. For, China did grab Scarborough Shoal in 2012.

Expert in international law, Carpio called on the government immediately to correct Duterte’s history lapse, lest it be taken against the Philippines. The jurist extensively has researched the South China Sea dispute, and was among those who brought the Philippine case for UN arbitration. The UN court has rubbished China’s alleged right to occupy Scarborough, off the coast of Luzon and well outside China’s territorial or economic zone waters.

Following is Carpio’s lament:

“President Duterte is quoted in the Channel News Asia’s article, “Philippines’ Duterte Praises China on Beijing Visit,” posted in its website on 19 October 2016. The statements of President Duterte as quoted in the article must be corrected to avoid serious damage to the Philippines.

“In referring to China’s relation with the Philippines, President Duterte is quoted in the article as saying: ‘It (China) has never invaded a piece of my country all these generations.’  This is incorrect. In 2012 China physically seized and in effect invaded Scarborough Shoal, which is defined as Philippine Territory under Republic Act No. 9522 (Amended Definitions of the Archipelagic Baseline of the Philippines). RA 9522 states that the Philippines has ‘sovereignty and jurisdiction’ over Scarborough Shoal. In 1995 China seized from the Philippines Mischief Reef, which is part of the submerged continental shelf of the Philippines as affirmed by the Tribunal’s Final Award of July 12, 2016.

“All ancient maps of the Chinese dynasties show Hainan Island as the southernmost territory of China. There is no ancient Chinese map showing Scarborough Shoal or the Spratlys as part of Chinese territory.  Ancient maps of the Philippines show that Scarborough Shoal has been Philippine territory since 1636, and the Spratlys were part of the Philippines since at least 1690. On 29 September 1932, China officially declared to the world, in a Note Verbale to France, that China’s southernmost territory were the Paracels, moving a little further south its southernmost border.  Even then, it meant that Chinese territory never included Scarborough Shoal or the Spratlys.

“Regarding the Tribunal’s Final Award, President Duterte is quoted in the article as saying: ‘The arbitral award gives us the right; China has the historical right.’ That is incorrect. The UNCLOS Tribunal at The Hague concluded: ‘The Tribunal sees no evidence that, prior to the Convention, China ever established a historic right to the exclusive use of the living and nonliving resources of the waters of the South China Sea, whatever use it may historically have made of the Spratlys Islands themselves.’ The Tribunal explained that China’s uses in the past of the South China Sea beyond its territorial seas, through fishing by Chinese fishermen and sailing by its merchant ships and navy, were uses of high seas freedom, just like the uses of the South China Sea by other states. The South China Sea was never exclusively used by China, in the past or now.

“These statements by President Duterte must be corrected lest China claim, quoting him, that Scarborough Shoal is not Philippine territory and that the Philippines recognizes China’s historic rights to the South China Sea, a claim the Philippine government already successfully refuted as false before the Hague Tribunal. Under international law, unilateral statements of a head of state can bind the state and can be taken against such state in an arbitration between such state and another disputant state; thus the need for the government to issue immediately a correction, lest these statements of President Duterte bind the Philippines.”

* * *

Agrarian Reform Sec. Rafael Mariano accuses the Cojuangco clan of non-payment of P1.3 billion to thousands of workers of Hacienda Luisita in Tarlac. Ironically however, those workers say it is Mariano’s fault that they haven’t been paid the amount due them.

The Supreme Court has ruled with finality that the Cojuangcos must pay the P1.3 billion, from the sale of 500 hectares of Hacienda Luisita as an industrial estate and the expropriation of 83 hectares to construct the South Luzon Expressway. The SC ordered the Dept. of Agrarian Reform to initiate the audit of the exact amount to be paid to the workers, minus administrative costs incurred by the Cojuangcos’ Hacienda Luisita. The workers say Mariano has not commenced the audit although the SC has designated the three auditing firms. Instead, Mariano reportedly is entertaining the petition of a handful of workers to reverse the conversion of agricultural land to industrial estate.

The workers say such reversion is no longer possible since the SC has deemed legal the sale of the industrial estate. What is left to be done is for Mariano to junk the petition, proceed with the audit to determine the exact amount, and finally, distribute the cash to the beneficiaries.

* * *

Catch Sapol radio show, Saturdays, 8-10 a.m., DWIZ, (882-AM).

Gotcha archives on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Jarius-Bondoc/1376602159218459, orThe STAR website http://www.philstar.com/author/Jarius%20Bondoc/GOTCHA

Japan might join PH, China talks on South China Sea – Duterte

MANILA, Philippines – Depending on "developments," President Rodrigo Duterte said future talks with China over maritime disputes in the South China Sea might include Japan.

"We (Philippines and China) will find the day to talk about it – only on the issue of the South China Sea. It could be bilateral. It depends on the developments. It could be multilateral, and that would include Japan," Duterte said Friday night, October 21, during a press briefing in Davao City upon his arrival from Beijing.

"Those are what I suggested (to China) [that we can do] in the future," Duterte said.

Duterte is visiting Japan next week, his 6th foreign destination as Philippine president. His statement Friday night was a response to a Japanese reporter who asked about the agenda in Japan. (READ: Duterte's Japan visit to focus on investments, defense)

"We can only agree to talk peacefully to resolve the dispute and maybe come up with something that is good for everybody. Just maybe," Duterte said.

Japan also has maritime disputes with China, particularly over the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands located west of Japan and east of China. Taiwan is also a claimant.

Based on their common alliance with the US, Japan and the Philippines stepped up security cooperation during the previous administration of President Benigno Aquino III,donating ships to beef up the fleet of the Philippine Coast Guard.

In 2015, Philippine and Japanese navies flew together over the West Philippine Sea for the first time since the World War 2. The two countries also began talks on a possible visiting forces treaty that will allow Japanese troops in the Philippines.

How the new Duterte administration is going to proceed with plans under the former administration with respect to cooperation with Japan remains unclear as his administration pivots to China and away from the US.

Duterte's state visit to China has resulted in, among others, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the establishment of "joint coast guard committee on maritime cooperation."

Duterte resumed bilateral relations with China, years after the previous administration froze communications lines because of China's practical occupation of Scarborough Shoal. The Philippines filed and won an arbitration case against China to junk its blanket claim of historic rights over the seas.

Duterte gave assurances that he will not give up the country's sovereignty over the West Philippine Sea amid concerns that his pivot to China will allow the military superpower to dominate the South China Sea.

"I told everybody and I told China, I cannot surrender anything there," Duterte said.

Duterte said his visit to Japan will focus on economic cooperation.

"My talks with the Japanese government would really be solely on, most of it really, is economic cooperation and, of course, shared interests," he said.

Duterte said he also wants to visit Japan's Congress, the Diet. – Rappler.com

Panatag trumped by $24-B promise

POSTSCRIPT By Federico D. Pascual Jr. (The Philippine Star)

AFTER attacking the United States to the delight of his hosts in Beijing and probing what China could offer the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte wrapped up his four-day state visit Friday carrying home promises of investments ($15 billion) and soft loans ($9 billion).

But Duterte failed to convince China to allow Filipinos back to their traditional fishing grounds at the Panatag (Scarborough) shoal off Zambales. He got instead another promise from Beijing to talk later about fisheries and such issues over disputed areas of the South China Sea.

The question of who lost in the bargain is likely to haunt the aspiring power player from Davao now dreaming of forming a China-Russia-Philippines axis against “the rest of the world.”

We were aghast, embarrassed even, that our President bad-mouthed its ally of long standing, the United States, while he was visiting China in search of goodwill and goodies. He did not have to announce his “separating” from the US to please his hosts.

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The 2,330-word joint statement of Duterte and China President Xi Jinping avoided mentioning the arbitration ruling last July 12 in The Hague that struck down as illegal China’s extensive claim over much of the SCS, including several maritime areas of the Philippines.

China has built what appear to be military facilities on Kagitingan (Fiery Cross), Panganiban (Mischief), Zamora (Subi), Kennan (Chigua), Mabini (Johnson South), Burgos (Gaven) and Calderon (Cuarteron) reefs, areas being claimed by the Philippines.

Those who were hoping Duterte would fight for Filipino fishermen illegally deprived by China of their only livelihood found him agreeing instead to postpone Panatag discussions to a date to be decided by Beijing.

Before playing Axis, fix traffic first

WE CUT down our commentary on the Duterte-Xi statement when we read, and liked, an essay of Sen. Ralph Recto on the same subject. Excerpts from the Batangas senator:

“Foreign policy rebalancing should not mean that we swing the pendulum to the other extreme, that we dump old friends for new suitors.

“We should practise big-tent diplomacy, welcoming all, and shunning no one. The national interest is served by extending amity to all, and hostility to none.

“In rewriting the country’s foreign policy playbook, the President can perhaps pick up a few pointers from his Facebook team.

“These are: You need not unfriend someone to befriend another. If you don’t like him at the moment, you can unfollow him without unfriending or blocking him so that you retain the option to follow him again.

“Any drastic shift in our foreign policy direction should be well-thought-out and not simply blurted out. It should be a product of deep study and wide discussion. Because of its far-reaching implications, it cannot be an announce-now, study-later thing.

“Crafting an independent foreign policy requires introspection, not impetuousness. This is all the more true if the object of the President’s pique is not a backwater failed state, but a nation that is home to the largest number of Filipinos abroad, the biggest source of foreign exchange remittances, one of the biggest ODA donors, a major market of our products and services, like the BPO.

“Yes, our relations with the United States may not be perfect. But a country which has illegally built a great wall of sand in our seas is not, and far from, the epitome of a good friend either.

“As to our joining Russia and China in a new axis, let us fix our traffic first before we insert ourselves in the power games of nuclear states.”

• EJKs may harm Phl GSPP status

SPACE limitations forced us to also cut last Thursday an article of Dean Mel Sta. Maria of the Far Eastern University Institute of Law on extra-judicial killings in the Philippines that have caught the attention of the International Court of Justice.

ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda recently said: “I am deeply concerned about these alleged killings and the fact that public statements of high officials of the Philippines seem to condone such killings and further seem to encourage State forces and civilians to continue targeting these individuals with lethal force.

“Any person in the Philippines who incites or engages in acts of mass violence including by ordering, requesting, encouraging or contributing, in any other manner, to the commission of crimes within the jurisdiction of the ICC is potentially liable to prosecution before the Court.”

In his article, Sta, Maria warned: “If we lose (because of EJKs) the Generalized System of Preference Plus status granted to the Philippines by the European Community, about 6,800 Philippine products will be subjected to tariff entering 20 EU member-countries whereas, under the GSPP, they will not be charged. The Philippines could lose billions of dollars.

“The GSPP is non-reciprocal. The Philippines has no obligation to provide EU members with the same privilege for their products entering the Philippines. The GSPP is an EU system helping underdeveloped countries in global trade. The only conditions are that the grantees have a good governance system, respect for labor rights and core human rights values. The EU does not want to extend privileges to countries notorious for human rights violations.

“In the ASEAN, Myanmar and other members followed the lead of the Philippines and were granted GSPP status, but the EU suspended the Myanmar grant because of violation of core human rights and labor conventions by Myanmar dictators. But Myanmar changed its direction and has recently shown some improvement in these areas. It reapplied and EU reinstated its GSPP status.

“The Philippine GSPP status is up for renewal next year. Because of the EJKs, the EU tried to remind the Philippines of its concern on its human rights situation. President Duterte, instead of taking this constructively, cursed EU with a middle finger sign to boot. Until now, the bad-mouthing continues. There is a danger of losing GSPP status if EJKs continue. Undoubtedly, EJKs involve serious violations of human rights and a negative implication on proper governance.”

*      *      *

ADVISORY: To access Postscript archives, go to www.manilamail.com (if necessary, copy/paste theurl on your browser’s address bar). Follow us on Twitter as @FDPascual. Email feedback tofdp333@yahoo.com

Duterte: China visit a turning point in history

President Rodrigo Duterte said his visit to China signaled a turning point in history as it proved the capability of the two nations to work together.

"My state visit to China signaled a turning point in our shared history and showed that both countries are fully capable of working together for mutual beneficial cooperation even as we remain committed to settle disputes peacefully in full adherence of international law,” Duterte said in a speech in Davao City on Friday evening upon his arrival from his four-day China visit.

He added: "To realize the vision of a deeper and more meaningful engagement, we have opened formal lines of communications between our government and agreed on the full resumption of the regular bilateral consultations mechanisms which were put on hold for several years."

Duterte had spoken with the Chinese government on a number of issues concerning both China and the Philippines.

“In all meetings, we had productive and extensive discussions of the full-range of Chinese-Philippine relations from the trade to infrastructures and tourism and to science and technology and health,” the president said.

Duterte also said he talked to President Xi Jinping on the Scarborough Shoal issue, saying, "Yes, of course [we talked about it]. I leave it to the Chinese authorities what they will do in the next few days.”

Amid these talks, Duterte said what is important is to protect the country’s sovereignty.

“In every step the took the relationship of Philippines and China further forward, I was guided by the duty to protect the sovereignty of our nation and the interest of our people,” Duterte said as he vowed to put the nation’s interest above everything else.

“In all my engagements abroad, rest assured that I will always pursue our nation's best interest consistent with our independent foreign policy anchored on the basic tenets of sovereignty, non-interference and mutual respect,” he said.

He said in his speech that both countries have agreed to return to bilateral consultations to resolve the territorial disputes.

"We acknowledged the need to address disputes through peaceful means in accordance with international law. We also agreed to continue discussions on confidence-building measures, including a bilateral consultation mechanism to discuss immediate issues of concern in South China Sea," Duterte said.

He added that the two countries have affirmed "the importance of maintaining and promoting peace, freedom of navigation and overflight in South China Sea." — VVP/ALG, GMA News

What price is Du30 paying for Panatag?

HAGGLING with the Chinese is always fun, yet tricky to the uninitiated and the faint of heart. But then Filipinos have a tough President Rodrigo Duterte to negotiate for them in Beijing.

Haggling is time-consuming. The beauty of it is that both buyer and seller know that they are just makingtawad (bargaining) unmindful of any occasional unintended offense -- and in the end both parties feeling they brought home a good deal.

In Beijing, with the preliminary haggling already done by subordinates, the final options and sticky main points are left to President Duterte and his Chinese counterparts to decide.

By his repeated cursing of the United States, calling its president and ambassador names and threatening to cut ties, et cetera, Duterte has performed his own preliminaries to the delight of his hosts in Beijing.

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Scanning his long shopping list, we think his top priority, and most difficult case, is having Panatag (Scarborough) shoal off Zambales reopened to Filipinos. Aside from protecting Philippine sovereign interests, Duterte has to show concern for displaced fishermen.

On the other hand, sharing Huangyan Dao (Chinese name of Panatag) with Filipinos must be difficult for China, especially if it has plans to use the area to consolidate control over crucial maritime lanes.

Panatag’s strategic location and resources dwarf the package of projects under an enhanced partnership in trade and investments – estimated to be worth some $3 billion – fattened by side contracts that a planeload of businessmen from Manila are eager to close.

• Camouflaging the Panatag issues

NEGOTIATING access to Panatag appears to be at the center of Duterte’s four-day state visit. China is expected to reject it or exact a heavy price for it.

His hosts could pressure Duterte to gloss over the recent ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that the “nine-dash line” basis of China’s claiming some 90 percent of the South China Sea is against international law.

For China to give up its exclusive hold on Panatag, which the tribunal said was unlawful, would amount to its accepting the arbitral verdict. Beijing has refused steadfastly to do that.

Besides, although the ruling was issued on petition of the Philippines, its implications on neighbors that are not a party to the case but have similar overlapping claims are devastating.

We doubt if Duterte is ready to throw away the landmark award that the Philippine government worked hard to get. Turning his back on it in exchange for Panatag could raise accusations back home of a $3-billion sellout.

Maybe the possible fallout on both China and the Philippines, and the consequent loss of face, could be minimized by the clever camouflaging of Panatag issues.

To buy time and avoid embarrassment, they could initially agree “in principle,” with the access details to be ironed out in subsequent negotiations. (This “postponement” will not sit well with the Manila crowd.)

Or in the joint statement announcing some agreement, the two parties could avoid direct mention of the Permanent Court of Arbitration award and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Since the award said Panatag should be opened to all nationals who traditionally fish there, the statement could invoke instead “tradition” and possibly “historical basis” (as China has used the term to justify its “nine-dash line” claims).

China itself need not say so, but such opening of Panatag could be interpreted by third parties, including the media, as effective compliance with that aspect of the arbitral ruling. That could help save face for Beijing.

To look good, the neighbors (later possibly with Vietnam whose nationals also “traditionally” fish there) could draw up an understanding on common use, harvest quotas, resource conservation, safety and security, mutual assistance, and whatever else.

• EJK is murder; abetting it is a crime

THE ISSUE of extrajudicial killings (EJK) , meanwhile, refuses to vanish as cadavers of suspects in drugs-related cases pile up. Latest reports place at around 4,000 suspects shot dead by the police and vigilantes since July 1.

To help explain the phenomenon that has caught the attention of the International Court of Justice, we share below excerpts (edited to fit) from an article of Mel Sta. Maria, resident legal analyst of TV5 and dean of the Far Eastern University Institute of Law:

“In the Philippines, death as punishment cannot be meted out by human beings on human beings. Rep. Act No. 9346 prohibits the death penalty. This is the societal imperative all must observe.

“No one is above the law. Not even the Supreme Court can order death as punishment; neither can the President. For the death penalty to be imposed, the law must be amended to allow it. But even with an amendment, the President still has no power to order the killing of people because only the judiciary can impose punishment.

“Any death sentence ordered by any other entity or person outside of the courts is extra-judicial. And if the order is carried out, it is EJK -- the commission of murder no less.

“Although it is not yet a legal term in our statute, EJK is now specially used to highlight its gravitas over and above the other types of murder -- the brutal extermination of ordinary people, especially the poor, caused or executed by state and non-state actors.

“Because EJK is a crime, every time President Duterte says ‘I will kill you’ or when he said, referring to 3,000,000 drug addicts, ‘I’d be happy to slaughter them,’ he, the head of state, conveys a deadly message discordant with the rule of law.

“The declarations may be taken as encouragement, especially for people in authority like Philippine National Police officers, to have the same motivation and objective. Put into action and ultimate fruition, it is EJK.”

(Next time: What could happen if ICC stepped in?)

* * *

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‘Separation from US unwise, incomprehensible’

MANILA, Philippines - President Duterte’s announcement of cutting ties with the United States in an apparent attempt to shift foreign policy in favor of China is “unwise and incomprehensible,” former foreign affairs secretary Albert del Rosario said yesterday.

“What is unfolding before us must be considered a national tragedy which does not need to happen,” Del Rosario said.

“It is our earnest hope that this most unfortunate declaration will be corrected,” he added.

Duterte said he would realign the Philippines with China and Russia in a triumvirate “against the world.”

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“The declared shift in foreign policy casting aside a long-time reliable ally to hastily embrace an aggressive neighbor that vehemently rejects international law is both unwise and incomprehensible,” Del Rosario said.

During his visit in Beijing, Duterte announced that he is cutting military and economic ties with the US and is veering towards China, in a dramatic foreign policy shift that his officials said would open more opportunities for the Philippines.

“The declared shift in foreign policy casting aside a long-time reliable ally to hastily embrace an aggressive neighbor that vehemently rejects international law is both unwise and incomprehensible,” Del Rosario said.

During his visit in Beijing, Duterte announced that he is cutting military and economic ties with the US and is veering towards China, in a dramatic foreign policy shift that his officials said would open more opportunities for the Philippines.

Duterte claimed the US has been arrogant and has been imposing its policies on other countries, including the Philippines, its traditional partner and ally.

“We must be with responsible nations with whom we share our core values of democracy, respect for human rights and the rule of law,” Del Rosario said.

“To stand otherwise is not what Filipinos are; it is not what we do; it is not what is right.”

Del Rosario said a principled and independent foreign policy that Duterte wanted should not be driven by a possible bias and threatening to burn bridges with valued partners and friends to favor another state.

He said Duterte’s foreign policy had gone “off-track.”

Unusual

Former foreign undersecretary Lauro Baja Jr. said it was “unusual” for the President, a guest of a foreign government, to make the announcement abroad that he is separating from a long-time ally.

He said the statements could be construed as a policy of the Duterte administration.

“It’s unusual though to say this abroad and as a guest of a government but… if it’s a policy, it’s a major statement from the President,” Baja said in a television interview.

It was one of the President’s normal off the cuff statements, but Baja said it is something that bears watching for further developments.

“His word is not severing, it’s separation. I don’t know what he means by ‘separation.’ I caught also a statement that China, Russia and the Philippines against the world. I don’t know what he means. I doubt that his Cabinet members particularly (Foreign Affairs) Secretary (Perfecto) Yasay and (Finance) Secretary (Carlos) Dominguez were consulted. So we don’t know what he means as of this time,” he said.

Baja said the situation in Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal should have been discussed by Duterte in his visit to China.

“No matter how you look at it, it’s a victory for China and what do we get for the Philippines is now nothing except to talk. I would have hoped that at least the situation in the Scarborough Shoal should have been discussed,” Baja said. “It’s incumbent for the Philippines to execute whatever awards. Again it will send a wrong message to China, a wrong message to the US, a wrong message to their ally, maybe a wrong message to Filipinos.”

source:  Philippine Star

US destroyer sails close to contested islands in S. China Sea: Pentagon

A US destroyer sailed close to a cluster of islands claimed by Beijing in the South China Sea on Friday, the Pentagon said, amid continued tensions in the contested waterway.

The USS Decatur passed close to the Paracel Islands and "conducted this transit in a routine, lawful manner without ship escorts and without incident," Pentagon spokesman Commander Gary Ross said.

"This operation demonstrated that coastal States may not unlawfully restrict the navigation rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea that the United States and all states are entitled to exercise under international law."

The maneuver is the third South China Sea "freedom of navigation" operation conducted this year by the United States, which has repeatedly stressed it will ignore China's "excessive" maritime claims.

Ross said the Decatur did not sail within 12 nautical miles of the islands, but crossed through a broader swath of ocean claimed by China.

Friday's operation was the first since a July ruling by a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which ruled there was no legal basis to China's claims to nearly all of the sea -- a verdict Beijing dismissed vehemently.

China that month held a week of military drills around the Paracels in the northern part of the South China Sea, during which other ships were prohibited from entering the waters.

Several other nations across the region including the Philippines and Vietnam have rival claims to various parts of the South China Sea.

China has been accused of doing massive environmental damage to the sea by building artificial islands, some with airstrips, capable of hosting military facilities.

The issue is a source of ongoing tension and anger in the region, and Friday's US operation is likely to further inflame Beijing's ire.

source:  Yahoo!

China, Philippines agree to dialogue over Sea disputes

BEIJING: Beijing and Manila will resume talks on their South China Sea disputes, both sides said Friday, an apparent diplomatic victory for China after an international tribunal dismissed its claims to the waters.

The announcement came during Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s visit to China where he sought economic support from the Asian giant and announced his “separation” from longtime ally the US.

“A bilateral consultation mechanism can be useful, which will meet regularly on current and other issues of concern to either side on the South China Sea,” the countries said in a joint statement.

The move to hold talks, suspended several years ago, will please Beijing, which has a longstanding policy of insisting territorial disputes be discussed directly between the parties, in an environment where analysts say it has more clout due to its economic size, rather than in multilateral forums.

The joint statement made no reference to a ruling by a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague earlier this year, which ruled that there was no legal basis to China’s claims to nearly all of the sea—a verdict Beijing dismissed vehemently.

Duterte initially told reporters he would raise the ruling in China, but later said that doing so would be rude to his hosts and that territorial disputes would take a “backseat” as he heaped praise on Beijing.

“Both sides affirm that contentious issues are not the sum total of the Philippines-China bilateral relationship,” the joint statement added.

It confirmed that China would lift a ban on imports from Philippine banana and pineapple growers which it imposed in 2012 as maritime tensions mounted.

China seized control of Scarborough Shoal, a fishing ground in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, the same year.

The two countries agreed to step up defense exchanges and co-operation between their coastguards, though no details were given. Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the Philippines at an unspecified time, it added.

Beijing greeted Duterte with military honors and offered the Philippines $9 billion in soft loans for development projects. It has also pledged to support his controversial war on drugs which has seen thousands killed.AFP

PH, China ink coast guard deal, 12 others

BEIJING: President Rodrigo Duterte and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping witnessed the signing of a maritime cooperation agreement and 12 other deals, pledging to enhance trust and deepen cooperation Thursday as Manila seeks to rebalance its foreign policy away from the US.

China welcomed Duterte – who donned a suit and tie for the occasion – with an official ceremony outside the Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square, with the two leaders striding side-by-side down the red carpet inspecting an honor guard, with children cheering.

Xi called the two countries “neighbors across the sea,” the official Xinhua news agency said.

Duterte is in China for a four-day trip seen as confirming his tilt away from Washington and towards Beijing’s sphere of influence – and its deep pockets.

The two leaders held “extensive” and “amicable” official talks and oversaw the signing of bilateral cooperation documents on business, infrastructure, and agriculture, among other fields, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said, without giving details.

In a statement, the foreign ministry quoted Xi as telling Duterte their emotional foundation of friendly and good neighborliness was unchanged, and difficult topics of discussion “could be shelved temporarily.”
Duterte called the meeting “historic,” it added.

Maritime deal

It was unclear whether the Memorandum on Understanding (MOU) on the Establishment of a Joint Coastal Guard Committee on Maritime Cooperation would involve joint patrols in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), which is being contested by the two countries.

Asked whether the leaders had discussed the South China Sea, the foreign ministry’s Hua said they had a “candid and friendly exchange of views on how to resolve relevant disputes.”

Their meeting represented a “return to the right track of dialogue and consultation” she said, adding China was willing to make “relevant arrangements” to cooperate on fishery issues.

Before his trip to Beijing, Duterte said he would demand that China give back Filipinos’ fishing rights in Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal.

He later on said he would not make any “hard impositions” or ask for concessions from the Chinese during the state visit.

A UN-backed arbitration court in July ruled in favor of the Philippines on the sea dispute and declared that China’s claims to the South China Sea had no basis. Beijing refuses to recognize the ruling.

Other deals

Aside from maritime cooperation, officials from both countries signed 12 agreements on trade, investments and tourism, narcotics and others in an expanded bilateral meeting at the Great Hall.

These include MOU on Production Capacity and Investment Cooperation; Agreement on Economic and Technological Cooperation between the Government of China and the Philippines; the MOU on Strengthening Trade, Investment and Economic Cooperation; the MOU on Drafting China-Philippines Economic Cooperation Development Plans and the Tourism; the MOU Implementation Plan 2017-2022; the MOU on the Lists of Transportation and Infrastructure Cooperation Projects; the MOU on Financing Cooperation between the Export-Import Bank of China and the Bureau of the Treasury of the Philippines; the MOU on Agricultural Cooperation Action Plan 2017-2019; the Protocol on Cooperation between the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency and the Narcotics Control Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security of China; the MOU on Supporting Conduct of Feasibility Studies for Major Projects; MOU on News Information Exchange Training and for Other Purposes; and the MOU on Cooperation on Animal and Plant Inspection and Quarantine.

‘No joint exploration’

Duterte earlier thumbed down the possibility of joint exploration between Manila and Beijing in the disputed West Philippine Sea.

In a press conference in Beijing Wednesday, the President ruled out discussions with Chinese President Xi on energy exploration.

“No, I do not think that would be right,” Duterte said, adding that the proposal for joint exploration should have the consent of Congress and the people.

“If you plan to give up something, if you plan to share what you have, if it is really yours, then you cannot talk about it only on your own. This has to be with the consent of Congress and everybody, every Filipino involved,” he said.

“So at this time, I am not empowered to do that,” the President added.

source:  Manila Times