US, Japan, Australia step in for weak SEAsia to chide China

VIENTIANE, Laos (AP) — The United States, Japan and Australia have urged China not to construct military outposts and reclaim land in the disputed South China Sea, in a strong show of support for Southeast Asian nations that have territorial disputes with Beijing in the resource-rich area.

A joint statement by the three allies, issued late Monday, ironically fills the vacuum created by Southeast Asia's main grouping, which during its meeting of foreign ministers on Sunday failed to take a stand against China because of disunity among themselves.

"The ministers expressed their serious concerns over maritime disputes in the South China Sea. The ministers voiced their strong opposition to any coercive unilateral actions that could alter the status quo and increase tensions," said the statement issued by Secretary of State John Kerry and foreign ministers Fumio Kishida and Julie Bishop.

The three met in Vientiane on the sidelines of a series of meetings organized by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN. The grouping could have leveraged the recent decision by a permanent arbitration panel in The Hague, which ruled in favor of the Philippines in a case it brought against China in their dispute in the South China Sea.

The panel ruled that China's claim that amounts to claiming almost all of South China Sea was illegal. Implicit in the ruling is that China has no standing in its other disputes with Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam, which also are ASEAN members.

But ASEAN became divided because of China's divide-and-rule diplomacy by winning support from Cambodia, and to some extent Laos, which resulted in the grouping issuing a joint statement on South China Sea that did not mention China by name or the arbitration ruling.

Instead, it fell upon ASEAN's allies to rush to their support.

In their joint statement, the ministers of Japan, Australia and the United States also expressed "strong support" for the rule of law and called on China and the Philippines to abide by the arbitration panel's award, "which is final and legally binding on both parties."

"The ministers stressed that this is a crucial opportunity for the region to uphold the existing rules-based international order and to show respect for international law," they said in one of the strongest and most detailed post-arbitration warnings by the allies against China.

In a clear broadside at China, the statement urged all parties to refrain from "unilateral actions that cause permanent physical change to the marine environment ... and from such actions as large-scale land reclamation, and the construction of outposts as well as the use of those outposts for military purposes."

China has been rapidly developing reefs and rocky outcrops into islands in the South China Sea, including building air strips capable of landing military aircraft. It claims historic rights to the vast sea, a claim that was rubbished by the arbitration panel, which said the sea is international waters and the rocky outcrops do not constitute sovereign islands that would give states an ownership on the surrounding waters.

For years China has prevented fishermen from other countries from venturing into the areas it claims, and has made it clear it will not back down despite the arbitration award, which it calls politically motivated, illegal and irrelevant. It has accused countries outside the region — notably the United States, Japan and Australia — of meddling in Southeast Asia and destabilizing the region.

In recent days, China's military has staged live-firing exercises in the area and said it would begin regular aerial patrols over the sea. It also has asserted that it will not be deterred from continuing construction of its man-made islands.

source:  Yahoo!

After the UN ruling, it’s US vs China, Round 2

[First of two parts]

IT’S the superpowers, stupid.

For all the big implications for international law, national interests, maritime resources, regional security, and environmental concerns, the Philippines’ petition for the Permanent Court of Arbitration to rule on China’s “nine-dash line” claim over most of the South China Sea is ultimately America vs China.

Indeed, it culminates what may be called Round 1 of the dominant big-power rivalry in Asia today. Here’s a truncated blow-by-blow of the geopolitical tussle.

In the two decades before the 2008 US financial crisis cut Uncle Sam a rung or two down from world dominance, America and China were actually friends. By the late 1980s, Western democracy and capitalism seemed to be winning its global Cold War with totalitarian communism, and China was Exhibit A of this ideological triumph.

Under then-paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s market reforms started in 1978, China boomed. The Soviet Union—that’s Russia and the neighboring states it once ruled, in case you missed the communist empire’s breakup—adopted democratic ways before capitalist ones, leading to its disintegration.

In this post-Cold War world, America emerged as the sole superpower. No nation could challenge its economic and military strength. Certainly not China, dwarfed by US wealth and weaponry, and harnessing Western and Japanese investment, know-how and consumer spending for its breakneck growth.

So in 1995, when China seized Mischief Reef from the Philippines, both the US and Japan merely urged a peaceful resolution to the dispute, and Western media had none of its “China bully” rhetoric during Beijing’s Scarborough Shoal takeover in 2012.

Nor was Washington worried by Beijing’s growing ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. China backed Asean in resisting Vietnam’s occupation of Cambodia in 1978 – 89, then supported the region in the 1997 Asian Crisis by not devaluing the renminbi. Chinese clout grew further with more trade, aid and investment in the 2000s, prompting some Washington policy wonks to urge greater US engagement in Asean.

America pivots to Asia
That all changed after the 2008 global financial crisis. It severely curtailed Western economic prowess, starting with America, while China continued its world-leading growth, moving to overtake the US as the planet’s largest economy and market.

Indeed, amid the financial debacle, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, now vying for President, even visited Beijing virtually cap in hand to ask the Chinese not to dump their $1 trillion in US Treasury bills—the largest hoard of American IOUs abroad—so the greenback doesn’t slump and US interest rates jump, further hobbling its economy.

With Beijing’s economic, military and geopolitical clout surging—by 2013, it displaced the US as the largest trading partner of most nations—Washington saw its seven decades as Asia’s leading power possibly ending, just when the region was set to become the world’s economic powerhouse.

What then emerged is the Obama administration’s Pivot-To-Asia policy for greater engagement in the region. Its key thrusts: “strengthening bilateral security alliances; deepening our working relationships with emerging powers, including with China; engaging with regional multilateral institutions; expanding trade and investment; forging a broad-based military presence; and advancing democracy and human rights.”

Under the Pivot, Washington boosted its defense alliances and pushed for what American officials called a “regional architecture” for addressing cross-border issues. It held annual strategic dialogues with major allies, Asean, and China, too. On the economic front, the US launched its Trans-Pacific Partnership initiative to liberalize trade among TPP members—which excluded China.

But what probably got Beijing’s attention the most is the Pivot’s plan to move 60 percent of US naval forces to Asia. Probably the biggest peacetime redeployment of the American armada, the plan surely got Chinese leaders and the People’s Liberation Army pondering the potential threat to China and its major sea lanes, particularly the South China Sea, where four-fifths of its oil imports pass, among other vital shipments.

The Philippines takes on China
The Pivot coincided with the Philippines’ more assertive stance in the South China Sea under President Benigno Aquino 3rd. His predecessor Gloria Arroyo sought to maintain good relations with China, Japan and the US, and even forged an undertaking with rival Spratlys claimants China and Vietnam for a joint seismic survey in disputed waters.

Under Aquino, however, the past tack of defusing incidents gave way to direct and open confrontation. The April 2012 incident over Chinese fishermen caught with endangered species in Scarborough Shoal escalated into a confrontation between the Philippine Navy’s new cutter, inherited from the US Coast Guard, and vessels of the Chinese maritime security force.

After the standoff, China wrested control of the shoal—but at a high strategic cost. For the second Chinese takeover of another Philippine-held outcrop, after Mischief Reef in 1995, gave credence to those warning of Chinese aggression and calling for a greater US military presence to counter it. Aquino took up that very line, and forged the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement boosting American forces in his country and giving them access to its military bases.

Thus, by Beijing’s own grab of a shoal, America got the justification for its military buildup in Asia, plus a vast archipelago to host the massive naval assets it will deploy. It also pressured Asean to reconsider its longstanding policy of avoiding strong criticism of China—especially after Beijing built military-capable facilities on reclaimed land around Fire Cross Reef in the Spratlys.

With Beijing expected to reject today’s arbitration ruling and already planning naval maneuvers to affirm its “nine-dash” claim, it cannot but help those portraying China as a lawless power requiring America to keep it check.

Clearly, Round 1 of America vs China in the Asian geopolitical ring goes to the US. What about Round 2? We’ll talk about that on Thursday.

Ric Saludo, managing director of the Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence, was Cabinet Secretary in 2001 – 08, and Asiaweek writer-editor in 1984 – 2001. He holds a MSc. in Public Policy & Management from the University of London and a diploma in strategy and innovation from Oxford.

source:  Manila Times Column of RICARDO SALUDO

Philippines wins case vs China

(UPDATED) This ruling by an arbitral tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands, on the maritime dispute on the West Philippine Sea comes after a 3-year process pursued by Manila but snubbed by Beijing.

MANILA, Philippines (3rd UPDATE) – The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on Tuesday, July 12, said an arbitral tribunal has ruled in favor of the Philippines in its historic case against China over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

"[The] Tribunal concluded that, as between the Philippines and China, there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources, in excess of the rights provided for by the Convention, within the sea areas falling within the ‘nine-dash line’," a press release from the PCA said.

According to the tribunal, "all of the high-tide features in the Spratly Islands (including, for example, Itu Aba, Thitu, West York Island, Spratly Island, North-East Cay, South-West Cay) are legally “rocks” that do not generate an exclusive economic zone or continental shelf." (READ: FAST FACTS: South China Sea dispute)

In a statement, Philippine Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr said the Philippines “welcomes” the award from The Hague.

“Our experts are studying the Award with the care and thoroughness that this significant arbitral outcome deserves. In the meantime, we call on all those concerned to exercise restraint and sobriety,” Yasay said.

Yasay added that the Philippines "strongly affirms its respect for this milestone decision" to help address disputes in the South China Sea.

"The decision upholds international law, particularly the 1982 [UN Convention on the Law of the Sea]," he said.

Key findings

The 501-page document was uploaded shortly after 11 am The Hague time (5 pm Manila time), and was accompanied by a shorter, 11-page press release summarizing key parts of the award.

The tribunal had the following key rulings:

The so-called "9-dash line" is invalid: "The Tribunal concluded that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the 'nine-dash-line'".

Reclaimed islands have no exclusive economic zone: "The Tribunal noted that the current presence of official personnel on many of the features is dependent on outside support and not reflective of the capacity of the features... (and) ....that none of the Spratly Islands is capable of generating extended maritime zones.

"The Tribunal found that it could – without delimiting a boundary – declare that certain sea areas are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, because those areas are not overlapped by any possible entitlement of China."

China has behaved unlawfully: "China had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone. The Tribunal further held that Chinese law-enforcement vessels had unlawfully created a serious risk of collision when they physically obstructed Philippine vessels."

Beijing has damaged the environment: China's large-scale land reclamation has "caused severe harm to the coral reef environment and violated its obligation to preserve and protect fragile ecosystems".

Island building should have stopped during the dispute process: The panel said it had no jurisdiction over the military standoff at Second Thomas Shoal, where Chinese and Philippine military and law enforcement vessels are locked in confrontation.

However, "China's recent large-scale reclamation and construction of artificial islands was incompatible with the obligations on a state during dispute resolution proceedings, insofar as China has... destroyed evidence of the natural condition of features of the South China Sea that formed part of the Parties' dispute."

Three-year process

This ruling by an arbitral tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands, comes after a 3-year process pursued by Manila but snubbed by Beijing.

The Philippines made the following moves in pursuing the case for the past 3 years:

• Filing a case against China on January 22, 2013

• Submitting a 4,000-page pleading or memorial on March 30, 2014

• Submitting a 3,000-page supplemental memorial on March 17, 2015

• Appearing before the arbitral tribunal in The Hague from July 7-13, 2015, to argue that the tribunal has the right to hear the Philippines’ case

• Returning to The Hague to discuss the merits of its case against China from November 24-30, 2015

President-elect Rodrigo Duterte said he wanted to wait for this ruling before deciding on the Philippines’ next moves in the sea dispute.

Incoming Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr said he is open to bilateral or one-on-one talks with China after the tribunal releases its ruling. – With reports from Agence France-Presse / Rappler.com

PH vs China: Which countries support Beijing?

Most of China’s 8 public supporters come from Africa, a continent to which China has pledged billions of dollars in aid

MANILA, Philippines – China says nearly 60 countries support its opposition to the case filed by the Philippines over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea). But an independent think tank says otherwise – only 8 countries publicly do.

Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), told Rappler that China is trying to project "that it has far more explicit support than it actually does."

On top of this supposedly bloated figure, most of China’s public supporters come from Africa, a continent to which China has pledged billions of dollars in aid.

In its Arbitration Support Tracker, the AMTI of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) listed the following as countries publicly supporting China's position:

• Afghanistan
• Gambia
• Kenya
• Lesotho
• Niger
• Sudan
• Togo
• Vanuatu

This is based on data as of Saturday, July 9.

Six of these 8 countries (Gambia, Kenya, Lesotho, Niger, Sudan, and Togo) are in Africa.

The AMTI said these countries publicly support China’s position which regards as "illegitimate" the arbitral tribunal handling Manila’s case against Beijing.

China: More African supporters

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei on Friday, July 8, said more African countries have publicly supported China's position.

He said that "the government of the Central African Republic, the government of Madagascar, the Prime Minister of Guinea-Bissau, the foreign ministry of Zimbabwe, the foreign ministry of Angola, and the foreign minister of Liberia" have also "made statements and endorsed China’s position on the South China Sea issue."

Hong said on Friday: "To date, more than 30 African countries have expressed their explicit support to China’s position through various channels, for which we would like to express our high appreciation."

"It also stands as a strong proof that standing for justice and objectiveness and upholding international rule of law is the mainstream of the international community. The arbitral tribunal and its ruling will not gain popular support and will only prove to be delusional," the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said.

The additional countries mentioned by Hong have not been reflected in the AMTI's database as of Saturday.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, is set to announce the tribunal’s ruling on Tuesday, July 12.

Same arguments, same words

While waiting for this ruling, China’s supporters have separately issued strong statements against the Philippine case in The Hague.

They echoed China’s position, sometimes even using the same words.

Gambia, for one, said the tribunal in The Hague "has no jurisdiction in pronouncing a verdict on maritime boundaries in the South China Sea."

By saying this, Gambia reiterated China’s strongest argument: that the tribunal in The Hague has no right to hear the Philippines' case. The tribunal rejected this argument in October 2015, handing the Philippines a round one victory in the arbitral proceedings.

Kenya, for its part, said that "disputes over the South China Sea should be peacefully resolved through consultations and negotiations in accordance with bilateral agreements and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea."

Curiously, Lesotho said the same thing, with roughly the same phrasing: that "disputes in the South China Sea should be resolved peacefully through friendly consultations and negotiations, in accordance with bilateral agreements and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea by parties directly concerned."

Part of 'PR campaign'

Experts, however, downplay the support of these countries.

For Poling, Beijing’s claim that it has almost 60 supporters is part of "a public relations campaign to try to deflect the reputational cost it will suffer after the ruling" on July 12.

Of the countries reportedly supporting China, Poling said only 8 "have actually done so in public."

Most others "have said only vague niceties about peacefully resolving disputes or engaging in consultation." He said this is "something that either Manila or Washington would probably agree with."

Poling added, "Most of those supporting China’s position on the arbitration are heavily dependent on Chinese aid and investment, and many are small or land-locked, making them less invested in the regime of international maritime law."

Poling also pointed out that most countries supporting China "rank low on indices like Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index and Freedom House’s Freedom in the World Index."

"In other words, there is a correlation between respect for rule of law at home and support for this arbitration and international law more broadly," Poling said. This simply means that the higher the respect for rule of law at home is, the higher the support for arbitration is, too.

China’s 8 supporters have the following rankings in the Corruption Perceptions Index in 2015. In these cases, the higher the number, the higher the perception of corruption:

• Afghanistan – 166
• Gambia – 123
• Kenya – 139
• Lesotho – 61
• Niger – 99
• Sudan – 165
• Togo – 107
• Vanuatu – N/A

US, UK support ruling

On the other hand, Poling said, those supporting the Philippine case have higher rankings in the indices he cited, meaning, they are perceived to be less corrupt.

The AMTI Arbitration Tracker said 40 countries "have voiced support for the arbitral proceedings, said the award will be legally binding, and/or called on China and the Philippines to respect it."

The AMTI Arbitration Tracker listed the following countries as "publicly supporting" the upcoming ruling as binding:

• Albania
• Australia
• Austria
• Belgium
• Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Botswana
• Bulgaria
• Canada
• Croatia
• Cyprus
• Czech Republic
• Denmark
• Estonia
• Finland
• France
• Germany
• Greece
• Hungary
• Ireland
• Italy
• Japan
• Latvia
• Liechtenstein
• Lithuania
• Luxembourg
• Malta
• Moldova
• Montenegro
• Netherlands
• New Zealand
• Poland
• Portugal
• Romania
• Slovakia
• Slovenia
• Spain
• Sweden
• United Kingdom
• United States
• Vietnam

Supporters of the upcoming ruling include 7 countries in the Top 10 of Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index for 2015. They are seen as relatively "clean" countries.

Ruling 'the most important thing'

Lionel Jensen, an Asian studies expert from the University of Notre Dame, agreed that majority of the countries supporting China "are largely undemocratic in their political conditions."

In an interview on Thursday, July 7, Jensen added, "I think Africa has had a unique degree of indebtedness to China in recent years." (Watch the video below)

source:  Rappler

Carpio says president who shares West PH Sea with China should be impeached

Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015, said a president who would think of splitting the West Philippine Sea into two and share it with China will surely be impeached.

In a forum on the maritime and territorial dispute, Carpio said it would be an impeachable offense to split the sea and go against the Constitution.

“Why don’t we just cooperate with China? If the bully goes to your house, and say, ‘get out,’ and you have the title of your house, but because he’s a bully and you’re a small guy, will you just tell him, ‘Okay, I’ll give you one half of the house?’ The UNCLOS grants us 200 nautical miles, the same with China,” Carpio said.

The Associate Justice was referring to the international law that governs maritime disputes and grants a country 200 nautical miles of exclusive economic zone.

“We have an agreement (under UNCLOS). China is saying we are entitled to 200 nautical miles but we’re claiming the rest of the South China Sea because of historic right. They cannot do that anymore… Fifty-fifty na lang? It would be unconstitutional.  A person who would do that would be impeached,” he added.

It seems like a “patama” to Vice President Jejomar Binay, who remains the only presidential aspirant who espoused a “joint venture” with China to explore the oil and gas of the contested waters.

Binay has said he is open to opening bilateral talks and that a small country like the Philippines needs China’s capital.

Carpio said any such presidency which would withdraw the case before the International Arbitration Tribunal just because it wants to talk with China is a catastrophe.

“I think the case would be decided before the next president assumes office. In the event it would not be decided, and there’s a new president, the UNCLOS itself encourages parties to come to an amicable settlement even while the case is going on,” Carpio said.

“If a new president comes in and the case is still going on, there is nothing wrong with talking to China. What is wrong is if the case is withdrawn. It should not be withdrawn… If the president will withdraw the case because we’re willing to talk with China, that would be catastrophic,” he added.

Carpio also lauded the tribunal’s latest decision to take jurisdiction of the case, and that the arbitration court even ignored the ancient nine-dash line, China’s strongest evidence to show that it owns the waters within the said boundary based on historic rights.

source:  Politiko

China's president talks tough ahead of tribunal ruling

China will never compromise on sovereignty, President Xi Jinping said Friday ahead of an international tribunal ruling over Beijing's maritime claims, as he celebrated the Communist Party's 95th anniversary.

The ruling party must maintain absolute power in the country, strengthen its military and establish a greater role in world leadership, Xi told serried ranks of top officials in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, to rapturous applause.

"No foreign country... should expect us to swallow the bitter pill of harm to our national sovereignty, security or development interests," Xi said, adding: "We are not afraid of trouble.”

His remarks come as regional tensions rise over Beijing's claims to nearly all of the South China Sea, with the US sending naval patrols close to artificial islands Beijing has built in the disputed waters.

Xi took an apparent stab at the US, saying: "We will not show up at other people's front doors to flex our muscles. That does not show strength or scare anyone."

An international tribunal in The Hague will rule on July 12 in a case brought by the Philippines challenging China's claims in the strategic waterway.

Beijing insists that the Permanent Court of Arbitration has no jurisdiction over the issue and has boycotted the proceedings.

Since assuming the party's top post in 2012, Xi has rapidly consolidated power while overseeing a more assertive foreign policy and a tighter authoritarian stance at home.

- Chinese wisdom -

In his speech, Xi heaped praise on the ruling party and vowed to maintain the country's centralised Communist-led political system.

"All party comrades must remember what we are constructing is socialism with Chinese characteristics, and not any other ideology," he said.

The Communist party, which had some 88.7 million members at the end of last year, must maintain "absolute leadership," he said.

Xi has won popularity with a much-publicised anti-corruption campaign that has claimed the scalps of several former top-ranked officials.

"The biggest threat to our ruling party is corruption," he said, calling for a "complete purification of the party's political environment".

He credited the Communist party with expelling "imperialism" from Chinese soil, and stressed the country's economic growth in recent decades.

He stressed the need for "Mao Zedong thought" but did not refer to the tens of millions killed in famines and political campaigns under the founder of the People's Republic founder.

The speech contained more than 20 references to "Marxism" and ended with a rendition of the left-wing anthem "The Internationale" by a brass band.

He also issued a warning to Taiwan's newly elected Beijing-sceptic President Tsai Ying-wen -- saying: "we will resolutely oppose all Taiwanese separatist forces".

Shortly before the ceremony began, a Taiwanese warship mistakenly launched a supersonic "aircraft carrier killer" missile towards the mainland, which landed in the Taiwan Strait, Taipei's navy said.

Xi vowed to "build, in line with our global status and in accordance with national interests, a strong army and consolidate national defence".

He also said that China would take an active role in what he called "global governance", suggesting it was seeking a weightier role in international affairs.

"China will actively participate in building a global governance system, and will contribute Chinese wisdom to perfecting such a system," Xi added.

source:  Yahoo!