Ruling on Phl maritime case vs China seen next year

MANILA, Philippines - A ruling on the Philippines’ case against Chinese claims in the South China Sea could be the most significant move by any tribunal established under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

However, a finding of no jurisdiction by the judges over the case will dim hopes of using arbitration as a peaceful means of resolution in the future.

Officials at the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague would likely rule on the Philippine case against Chinese claims by the end of 2015 or 2016.

This is expected to shape Southeast Asia as other countries which have claims in waters in the South China Sea are watching the case, Murray Hiebert, a senior fellow and deputy director of the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the CSIS in Washington, and Gregory Poling, a fellow with the Sumitro Chair, said.

“Decision could be the most significant by any tribunal established under the UNCLOS,” Hiebert and Poling pointed out.

CSIS Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies is a forum for high-level policy dialogue focusing on the region and US interests.

The Philippines initiated an arbitration case against China to challenge its so-called “nine-dash line” position, an expansive claim of “indisputable sovereignty” over almost the entire South China Sea.

“If the judges find that they do not have jurisdiction, it will dim hopes of using arbitration as a peaceful means of resolution in the future,” Hiebert and Poling said in their commentary.

“But if the judges do find jurisdiction, they will almost certainly rule China’s nine-dash line an invalid claim to maritime space.”

China has rejected arbitration and indicated that Beijing is not participating in the arbitration process.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration set Dec. 15 for Beijing to submit its counter-memorial response to Manila’s written arguments.

But China ignored the deadline and argued the arbitral tribunal does not have jurisdiction over the case.

In that case, Beijing, which maintains that it will not take part in the proceedings and will not submit its arguments, “will face some difficult choices,” Hiebert and Poling said.

source:  Philippine Star

‘Lawyers united vs China’s sea claims’

Lawyers do not see eye-to-eye on anything because they actually make a living out of disagreements. But according to  one of the country’s foremost foreign affairs and economic analyst, with regards to the question of territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea, there is practically a general agreement among legal eagles, both here and abroad, that China’s “nine dash line” claim is in conflict with international law.

“I talked to top international lawyers and experts from New York, (Washington) DC to Hawaii,” said Prof. Richard Heydarian in a television interview Monday.

“It’s rarely that lawyers agree on anything, they make money out of disagreements. But on this issue practically there’s a consensus that the nine dash line is inconsistent.”

He pointed out that many lawyers argue that one can only claim historical rights over waters such as bays or coastal waters but not all the way into the high seas.

“In fact around 50 years ago, China itself in one of its documents conceded that South China Sea constitutes high seas,” said Heydarian who recently visited the US to discuss with government and university experts issues related to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) and the South China Sea territorial dispute.

On the other hand, Heydarian described the Philippine strategy as “smart” considering that “UNCLOS is not just about certain sovereignty, it’s all about territorial delimitation.”

source:  Manila  Bulletin

DFA lauds Vietnam’s role in UN arbitration

VIETNAM has helped ensure peace in the South China Sea dispute with Beijing by following the Philippines in seeking UN arbitration, the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said.

Beijing claims almost the entire energy-rich South China Sea, but Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims. Only Brunei has not occupied and garrisoned territory in the potential flash point in the region.

Vietnam on Thursday submitted its position to a UN arbitration tribunal initiated by the Philippines over the festering dispute. China called on Vietnam to respect its sovereignty and has refused UN arbitration.

“The Vietnamese position is helpful in terms of promoting the rule of law and in finding peaceful and nonviolent solutions to the South China Sea claims based on international law,” the DFA said. “This promotes peace and stability in our region.”

China, Vietnam, and the Philippines are signatories to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, an international agreement that grants the right to explore and exploit resources within 200 nautical miles of a state’s shore. Both Hanoi and Manila say Beijing is extending beyond the limit.

In May, China placed its largest mobile oil rig close to Vietnam’s coast in the Paracel islands that prompted angry protests in Hanoi against Chinese business interests. At the same time, Beijing began reclamation in the Spratly islands and appeared to be building airstrips in the area.

Beijing has also seized control of Scarborough Shoal near the Philippines’ main island of Luzon and chased civilian ships delivering supplies to Philippine-held Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratlys.

The Philippines and Vietnam appear to be ending decades of distrust. Last year, the two sides held a first-ever navy-to-navy talks and last month, Hanoi displayed its two most powerful missile-guided stealth frigates in Manila during a port call. The two states will hold the first strategic defense dialogue early next year.

“Vietnam’s legal opinion puts political weight on the Philippine legal case,” Professor Rommel Banlaoi, a security analyst, said on television.

“What Vietnam did was in fact supporting, reaffirming, and even rallying behind the Philippine legal action and that’s good for our national interest.” -- Reuters

source:  Businessworld

Manila files protest vs Beijing for building structures on Spratly Islands

DEPARTMENT of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Secretary Albert F. del Rosario confirmed on Tuesday that the agency had filed a diplomatic note to China on Oct. 10, protesting the construction of structures in the Kagitingan Reef, which is included in the Philippines’ claim on the contested Spratly Islands.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of Senate budget deliberations, Mr. del Rosario said in sending a “note verbale” to China dated Oct. 10, the agency was “protesting the activity” in the disputed features in the South China Sea.

Mr. del Rosario told reporters the previous day that the agency was still “validating” the reports claiming that China’s reclamation activities was in the advanced stage and that an airstrip is being built on the reef.

“We just checked,” he told reporters on Tuesday. “We looked at our records and discovered that a note verbale has already been sent.”

The Chinese-occupied reef -- called Fiery Cross Reef in English, Yongshu Jiao in Chinese -- is also claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam.

Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Gregorio Pio P. Catapang, Jr. told reporters that the military was still “checking out” the facilities that have been erected in the reef and is currently confirming if an airstrip existed.

“As of now, the DFA has the lead role, so whatever the findings of the DFA [are], we [will] just await their instructions on what the AFP has to do,” Mr. Catapang said.

He added that Filipino troops were still able to maintain presence on the islands the country currently occupies “because nobody bothers them.” -- Vince Alvic Alexis F. Nonato

source:  Businessworld

Noy raises sea row at APEC

BEIJING – In a gathering of Asia-Pacific leaders where the economy is the main agenda, President Aquino raised the West Philippine Sea issue, particularly efforts by his administration to resolve territorial disputes through international arbitration.

In a press briefing at the Philippine embassy here yesterday, Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario said the maritime row was “touched broadly” in all of the five bilateral meetings.

The President is in the Chinese capital for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.

“For example, in the case of Vietnam, there was common agreement that we would continue to pursue dispute settlement on the basis of peaceful means in accordance with the rule of law using UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea),” Del Rosario told members of the Philippine media.

Aquino also discussed the issue with leaders of Canada, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand and Thailand.

China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have overlapping claims over the West Philippine Sea and South China. But host country China has been flexing its military muscle to assert its claim over almost the entire South China Sea and West Philippine Sea.

With Canada, Del Rosario said there were also “broad discussions on the application of international law in resolving regional disputes.”

Aquino met with Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang Sunday night and with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter O’Neill, New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and Thai Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-ocha yesterday.

Del Rosario said the Philippines and Vietnam reaffirmed their friendship and agreed to convene a joint committee in December to start discussions on a roadmap towards a strategic partnership on improving trade, investment and people-to-people exchanges.

“I think that it (strategic partnership) is mostly driven by our close ties with them, and we actually have entered into a strong commitment to be able to bring our relations closer, and the way to do this is through some form of a comprehensive strategic partnership,” Del Rosario said. “We still have to craft exactly what we mean by that. It’s possible that we need to integrate our thoughts in terms of what do we mean by ‘comprehensive strategic partnership.’ But I think there’s enough of a history in terms of our relations and the fact that we have very close ties to get us to where we want to go,” he said.

Japan, China deal OK

Del Rosario welcomed the agreement between China and Japan to develop mechanisms to gradually resume talks, which had been stalled for at least two and a half years, due to their maritime spat over the Senkaku Islands.

“We viewed that as a positive development if... it contributes to peace, security and stability in the region,” Del Rosario said.

The foreign affairs chief said the Philippines had always taken the position that the West Philippine Sea dispute should not be the sum total of relations between Manila and Beijing.

“As you know, our position has always been that China is a friend and a neighbor, and we are at all times working for a constructive relationship with them – one that is mutually beneficial,” he said.

He said Aquino and then Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed in 2011 that bilateral relations involved many facets and that “contentious issues” could be treated “separately.”

Aquino went on a state visit to China in 2011 upon the invitation of Hu but had to cancel a visit to a trade expo in Nanning last year after reportedly being “disinvited.”

“And so, we have been working to have this agreement honored because we are, of course, very interested in being able to again have a close relationship with China, whom we consider as a valuable friend,” Del Rosario said.

No hostile move

He also reiterated that arbitration was not a hostile move and was intended precisely to maintain peace.

“We have had questions about our motives for arbitration. We went into arbitration after we had exerted every possible reasonable means to arrive at a peaceful settlement of the dispute,” Del Rosario said.

“But this was our last resort and arbitration is, for us, a means for clarifying entitlements for all nations involved in this dispute so that this can be used as a way to move forward in terms of settlement of these disputes that we speak of,” he pointed out.

“We precisely selected arbitration because, as was defined by the United Nations, it is not an unfriendly act. It is, as a matter of fact, one that we are utilizing to be able to preserve a valuable friendship,” he added.

Asked if Aquino and Chinese President Xi Jinping would have a chance to meet, Del Rosario could only say “there’s a possibility.”

He said he had congratulated China for the hosting of the APEC, which had been successful so far.

Canada visit

Del Rosario also said President Aquino received an invitation from Canada’s Harper to visit the North American nation next year.

Del Rosario said Harper had also inquired about the progress of rehabilitation in areas devastated by Super Typhoon Yolanda last year.

He said Aquino and Harper talked about the inclusion of the Philippines among Canada’s priority development partners. “They have this development program and the Philippines was selected to be one of those countries that would enjoy this thrust,” Del Rosario said.

The foreign affairs chief said the President thanked Canada for its “overwhelming support” for Yolanda victims.

Del Rosario said Harper was quite pleased with the developments reported to him.

“There was also a benefit given to the Philippines in terms of a trade priority... which focuses on providing a two-way trade and market access to the Philippines,” Del Rosario said.

He also revealed discussions on the Islamic State but did not give details.

Del Rosario said Aquino and Harper both acknowledged the global threat posed by IS.

“And this is already myself speaking – that we cannot ignore the crimes and atrocities and the fact that... we must take a position against those who perpetrate crimes against humanity,” Del Rosario said.

Del Rosario said they thanked Canada for its steady assistance to the Philippines’ chairmanship in 2015.

Del Rosario also said the Philippines and Papua New Guinea were moving for improved trade and investment cooperation.

“We want to advance cooperation in health services. It appears that the Philippines is emerging as a favored destination for medical tourism. We are being asked to advance our cooperation in education, specifically technical and vocational programs,” Del Rosario said.

“It seems that many Papua New Guinea nationals are now studying in the Philippines. And, of course, there was a discussion on the deepening of our cooperation in agriculture,” he added.

“For example, IRRI (International Rice Research Institute) explores finding suitable rice species for Papua New Guinea,” he added.

Papua New Guinea will chair APEC in 2018 and its leader sought the Philippines’ support for the tiny nation’s hosting as “we seek their cooperation for our chairmanship in 2015.”

Thankful to Thais, NZ

The Philippines, Del Rosario said, also expressed gratitude to Thailand for the latter’s assistance to Yolanda victims.

He said Manila eagerly awaits the forthcoming visit of the prime minister and the foreign minister, separately.

“We are desirous of promoting greater cooperation in trade and investment with greater focus on the support for our SMEs (small and medium enterprises) and our farmers,” he said.

“We exchanged views on best practices on instituting government reforms. And the President was briefed on the plans of the new Thai government in terms of their effort to return to democracy,” he added.

Del Rosario also said Aquino and New Zealand’s Key discussed improved air links between the two countries.

“We commended the pace of relations with New Zealand, particularly the expansion of air links between the Philippines and that country,” Del Rosario said.

source:  Yahoo!

United stance by ASEAN on territorial disputes in leaked draft statement

The leaked contents of a draft statement supposed to be delivered by the chair at the 25th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit to be held in Myanmar’s administrative capital Naypyidaw on November 12, presents a more united ASEAN determined to push for the early conclusion of a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea.

Four ASEAN member states — the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei — are involved in separate maritime disputes with an increasingly assertive China.

Based on the alleged draft statement, the ASEAN leaders are to express concern over recent developments in the South China Sea and reaffirm the importance of regional cooperation in maintaining peace and stability.

“We expressed our concerns over recent developments in the South China Sea, which have increased tensions in the area,” the statement reads. “We reaffirmed the importance of regional cooperation in maintaining peace and stability, promoting maritime security and safety, and the freedom of navigation, including in and over-flight above the South China Sea.”

Further, the draft says the ASEAN leaders urge all parties involved in the disputes to exercise self-restraint, settle the issue through peaceful means and in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Conventions on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The leaders also highlight the importance of maintaining the momentum of negotiations and in achieving early a COC.

source:  Manila Bulletin

‘Crisis will come to pass’

THE Philippines and China can still overcome the political challenges brought about by territorial disputes and attain unimpeded growth under an environment of peace characterized by brotherly cooperation among “captains of industries” from both countries, Dante A. Ang, Chairman Emeritus of The Manila Times, said.

Ang, the just concluded Manila Times Philippines-China Business Forum told that the flow of trade between the two countries should not be affected by the bickering over a few rocks and shoals in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

“Together, the Philippines and China can attain unimpeded growth and prosperity for its peoples but only if peace, cooperation and understanding reign between them. More important, the region should be free from the toxic political atmosphere that could cause grave miscalculations whose outcome could further diminish trade and commerce between our two countries,” he said in his opening speech during the forum.

Ang underscored the importance of dialogues that will eventually help in patching up disputes between the two nations.

He expressed hope that businessmen from both divides can “navigate the treacherous political waters in the pursuit of their ventures either in the Philippines or China.”

“This gathering contributes to the ebbing away of the high tide of passion and emotion that characterize the flow of political events,” Dr. Ang said.

He emphasized that businessmen from both sides of the fence can reach out to their leaders to help shape up a mutually beneficial code of conduct founded on “mutual trust and respect and genuine friendship.”

“For as long as the captains of industries from both shores continue to demonstrate their abiding faith in each other, and for as long as trade and commerce between our two countries continue to flourish, we will conquer the political challenges that confront us in a peaceful fashion,” said The Times owner.

“And as in all things, this political crisis will soon come to pass,” he added.

Dr. Ang acknowledged that the Philippines can ill afford to engage China in an “expensive protracted test of political will” as shown by Beijing and Manila’s opposing views on the issue of sovereignty over the contested portions of the Spratlys in the South China Sea.

“We can dream all we want but the reality is, the Philippines, with its meager military resources, can ill afford to engage China in an expensive protracted test of political will. China, on the other hand, even with its superior military might and deep pockets, courts political isolation. Both the Philippines and China do not need this political crisis. In this David and Goliath scenario, nobody wins. Everybody loses,” he pointed out.

With its 1.2 billion population, Dr. Ang said, China is a force to reckon with, being the world’s second superpower next only to the United States.

“I am not however equating strength with size and number of population. I only mention it to bow to the truism that China is both a political and economic giant and is projected to become the biggest economy in the world edging out the United States from its number one position possibly in the next decade,” he added.

Dr. Ang maintained that business should be above politics as he subscribed to the proposition that “business is too delicate a business to be left in the hands of the politicians.”

“For business to thrive and prosper, it must be free from the clutches of the vagaries of politics,” he said.

Since the Philippines is now reputed to be among the fastest growing economy in the region with an annual growth rate of 6 percent, China becomes its necessary trade partner.

Dr. Ang also noted that the country demonstrated its sound economic foundations when it and Indonesia were the only two countries in the region that maintained a positive Gross Domestic Product growth rate when the economic turmoil buffeted the world in 2008 and 2009.

source:  Manila Times

Some realities about China discussed at the Times Forum

THE Manila Times Business Forum on China-Philippine relations was seen by most of those who attended it as a success.

They said they felt the forum activities—speeches by experts, detailed advice from business, management and even tax experts based in China, correct definitions of geopolitical realities, and deep questions and frank answers during the Q&A periods—did what the forum’s title and theme had promised: “Business as Usual in Unusual Times—Fostering prosperous relations between Philippine and Chinese entrepreneurs.”

The forum not only helped Filipino businessmen delegates planning to expand their businesses in China. It also helped affirm the decision of those who have already been getting ready to do business in China that they will be doing the right thing.

One of the most riveting discussions was the one on the concrete reality of what it is to be doing business in China by Mr. Richard Cant. He is the director for the Yangtze River Delta Region, sitting in the Shanghai office but going on visits all over China, helping some of the more than a thousand clients of Dezan Shira & Associates set up their businesses and solve problems that come up in the course of running their companies and factories. These problems could pertain to the foreign investors’ relations with their Chinese partners or with the local government units in the places where the foreign investors’ operations are located.

A reality that seldom comes through is that China has become such a well-developed country— industrially, commercially and financially—that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of up to 100 or more regions, towns and cities are higher than or at least equal to the GDP of entire Western countries and the more prosperous and first world Asian countries and cities (like Singapore and cities in Japan).

This is important in viewing China as a place to invest in. Many wrongly see only the reality that because more than half of China’s 1.36-odd billion people are poor and not enjoying the wealth of the very rich coastal regions like Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xiamen (Amoy) and Hong Kong, the People’s Republic is really still an underdeveloped country.

Well, that is exactly what the Chinese government says when it wants to impress the government officials and people of poor countries the PRC has massive investments in. That’s because they don’t want these poor and weak countries to think of China as a dangerous superpower and super-rich country to have as partner.

The fact, however, is that very many provinces, cities and town of China are as prosperous, as dynamic economically and industrially, as Germany, Singapore and Milan (just for examples) and are richer than countries like France, not to mention Greece and the Philippines.

Another reality that is seldom talked about is that China has developed so much that it is critically short of oil, energy and labor. This is such a reality that some Chinese industrial giants are moving out of China and setting up operations in countries with more and cheaper labor and energy resources.

The labor shortage is because of China’s successful implementation of the one-child policy and its draconian enforcement of contraception and abortion. It is cursed with the “empty cradle” syndrome and an aging population almost as much as Western Europe is.

Can you imagine how many hundred thousands more Filipinos could be hired in China, if our and the Chinese government did not have this crazy current state of conflict?

The happy fact, however, is that on the people-to-people and business-to-business level, Philippine-Chinese relations are still very warm and productive.

But in things that the Chinese government has the power to dampen or restrain, it does act against the Philippines. One example of this is tourism. The PRC government has issued a strong advisory to Chinese travel agencies and tourists to avoid the Philippines. And sure enough tourists from China have markedly decreased.

source:  Manila Times

China sees inflow of more PH investment

China may see the inflow of more investment from Philippine companies such as Jollibee and the SM Group in the coming years as the retailers have been actively pursuing expansion plans in the world’s biggest market even as the two governments continue to try to “overcome difficulties,” China’s commercial envoy in Manila said.

Speaking to the more than 200 delegates who attended the just concluded Manila Times Business Forum, First Secretary Wang Yang of the China Embassy said China and the Philippines are not only neighbors, but also close relatives with a history of friendly exchanges for more than a millennium.

“Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between our two nations, we have witnessed significant progress in our bilateral friendship and common development, which has laid a good foundation for business and trade cooperation,” he said.

According to Chinese Customs Statistics, two-way trade between the two countries last year stood at US$38 billion, registering 4.7 percent growth.

In the first eight months of 2014, that amounted to nearly US$28 billion, increasing by 15 percent over the same period of last year, according to the data from the China Embassy.

“The two-way investments are also active. The Philippines is the fourth biggest foreign investor in China among Asean countries, and according to Philippine statistics, China is the eighth biggest foreign investor in the country since 2000.

“Chinese companies are investing in the power, agricultural and manufacturing sectors of the Philippines, while big Philippine enterprises like Oishi, SM and Jollibee have been players in the Chinese market for many years.

“I believe our countries can overcome difficulties for a brighter future together. I wish that countries involved in free trade agreements and links would be successful in attaining their respective targets,” Wang added.

‘China GDP to double in 10 years’
China is expecting its economy and per capita income to double in 10 years from the levels recorded in 2010.

“By 2020, China’s GDP [gross domestic product] and per capita income will double from the figures recorded in 2010. We need to maintain over 7 percent GDP growth every year for this to happen,” Wang said.

To back up the forecast, Wang cited “remarkable figures last year up to the present: 7.7 percent (GDP) growth for full year 2013, and 7.4 percent GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2014.”

There have been indications the rising cost of labor and production has started prompting some investors to consider other areas of investment outside of China.

Aside from labor costs, the Chinese economy also faces other challenges that could drive away investment, such as a talent crunch and an aging workforce; rising production costs; protectionism; increased competition; and environmental issues relevant to urbanization.

Despite such concerns, Wang said the government is optimistic that investment will remain high.

He pointed to data showing foreign direct investments (FDI) in China last year totaled $118 billion, up 5.3 percent over a year earlier.

Local companies alone accounted for more than $19 billion of the total, up 17 percent from the year-ago FDI level, he said.

China’s rising labor cost
Richard Cant, the Shanghai-based director of the Yangtze River Delta region of business management consultancy services Dezan Shira & Associates, said the government looks confident that investment in the country will continue to grow in the years ahead despite worries about the rising cost of production in China.

“There is 15 percent year-on-year growth in labor costs. The consequences of that are the Chinese and European companies looking at other markets [than China]. Western companies are looking at countries in the Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations],” Cant said in the same forum.

“Investors are looking at these countries, but no one in the Southeast Asian region delivers like China does, especially in infrastructure,” he said.

Describing the Yangtze River Delta region as “the powerhouse of China,” Cant said investment in the region contributes the bulk of the total investments in China.

source:  Manila Times

Romulo: PH actions fuel Chinese nationalism

THE Philippine government’s tacks of filing an arbitration case against China and openly seeking international support for Manila’s claim to disputed shoals and islets in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) may only be fanning nationalism among the Chinese who believe that the contested parts of the sea are theirs.

According to former Ambassador Roberto Romulo, Beijing’s assertion of the nine-dash line principle in proving its ownership of the disputed territories are among the “long-held beliefs” of the Chinese people that the area was theirs dating back to the Chin Dynasty.

Speaking during the Business Forum organized by The Manila Times, the former envoy also criticized the government for “not being good at restraint.” He said the Aquino administration’s moves to prove eignty over these islands naturally come as “provocative” to the Chinese.

“Aligning ourselves with the US and Japan and seeking world opinion should not be done in a public and provocative manner. It will fuel nationalism from the Chinese,” Romulo explained.

Earlier this year, the government through the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) filed a “memorial” with the International Tribunal on the Laws of the Sea contesting China’s claims to the disputed areas in the West Philippine Sea based on its nine-dash line rule.

In September, Aquino sought the backing of the European Union in Manila’s move against Beijing, invoking the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea where China is a signatory.

But these tactics, Romulo noted, do not sit well with China.

He said it is impossible for the Chinese government to strike a compromise because it will be perceived as an act of treason.

“If you look at the interior of China, aside from these substantive issues, [we have to know] China’s current political dynamics.

Realizing this help to calibrate [PH] response,” Romulo noted, adding that there’s “universal public support” in the mainland for its government toward its policies in the contested seas.

“Public support has devolved… Chinese [ownership] extends back to the Chin Dynasty. It is impossible for any Chinese government to compromise [because] compromise will be perceived as betrayal of the nation’s sovereignty,” he pointed out.

The former Foreign Affairs official maintained that it will be “difficult to imagine a major shift in China’s position until [there is a] new eldership bold enough to run counter along that long-held belief [of ownership over the territories].”

He said while there is no quick fix or “magic solution” to the problem, “subtlety” and “restraint” on the part of the Philippine government may do the trick in the long haul.

“There is no magic solution here other than the virtues of patience, perseverance and it is important to have that level of restraint, where we are not very good at, and subtlety,” Romulo added.

He said China and the Philippines should seriously consider joint use and exploration of the disputed areas and set aside the issue of sovereignty since none of the claimants are inclined to give up such.

“[Many] Chinese have all proposed shelving sovereignty and [resort to] joint use. Claimants should work together for maritime cooperation and joint development, maintain peace and stability, reduce tensions,” Romulo added.

Earlier, the former ambassador claimed that China’s rise as an economic superpower is inevitable, making it imperative for the Philippines to rekindle and even strengthen its ties with Beijing.
The chairman of AIG Philippine Insurance Inc., he said Philippine leaders must face the future and accept China’s “preeminence.”

“Why should we care to bring our relations to normalcy? Because [China’s rise] is a reality that we have to accept. [Thus it follows that] engagement and mutual accommodation [are] unavoidable,” Romulo added.

source:  Manila Times

China absorbing disputed areas

CHINA can slowly acquire more territory through its expansionist stance in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) and later “absorb the region,” a geopolitics experts said.

Rodger Baker, vice president for East Asia and the Pacific of Stratfor, said Beijing’s expansionism is “political, not military,” since none of the countries claiming ownership of small islands in the region will risk military action.

“So China can slowly absorb the region,” Baker said during the Business Forum organized by The Manila Times.

“Certainly, building structure on the islands prevents others from doing the same, and in time of relative peace may give China slightly easier and more robust capabilities for maritime surveillance,” the Stratfor analyst explained.

“But the main purpose of occupying the islands is not military. It is political,” he said.

Beijing’s “ownership” of the islands is further bolstered by the fact that it faces no concrete challenge.

“This strengthens the reality of Chinese possession,” Baker pointed out.

China’s highly dynamic movements in the disputed territories, he further explained, changes the political reality there by easily redirecting attention when tensions arise.

“When tensions rise too high with a particular country, China can ease off, shift attention to a different country, or just use the perception of heightened tensions to drive a desire for an easing of stress,” Baker said.

While the United States and other “extra-regional allies” have expressed the desire for a legal settlement of the maritime disputes, these countries “are not going to intervene on behalf of Southeast Asian nations,” he added.

“In China’s perspective, [it] will lead to a realignment of political relations where the Southeast Asian nations will find accommodation with China more beneficial than attempts to oppose Chinese expansion,” Baker said.

He observed that while China’s unprecedented growth has pushed it to become a world economic superpower, it lags behind in terms of “soft power expansion.”

“The disconnect between China’s economic strength and the security role assumed by others—namely the United States—highlights the imbalance of power in the region. In some ways, it has benefited Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] countries, giving Asean states the ability to play off the big power competition for their own benefit,” the Stratfor official said.

Baker asserted that China will not “dominate” its smaller neighbors as colonial powers did in the past.

“China is hoping to simply draw in their cooperation and concessions, a recreation of the ages-old Chinese system of regional political management,” he said.

Also, according to Baker, Beijing cannot afford to have a confrontation with the Philippines because it would run counter to its maritime interests in the region.

“The Philippines is a US treaty ally, and thus seen as part of a US containment strategy to hold China in. There is plenty of room for expanded economic cooperation with China, despite the political speed bumps.”

source:  Manila Times